Futurists have the luxury of making provocative prognostications. They may be right or wrong, and no one will know until years later. After all, predicting the future is nothing more than an educated guess. Everyone can play. With that in mind, medical advertising is here to stay! That said, these are dynamic times, and, medical advertising, like everything else, must adapt to an evolving market, advances in science, and the vagaries of politics. In advance of writing this section, we surveyed dozens of key medical advertising pundits about the industry's future, ffere you will find many facts, opinions, and views as expressed by these pundits. Industry growth Over 90 percent of responders believe that the pharmaceutical industry (our clients) will experience a sales growth of less than 7 percent per year for at least the next five years. Fifty percent guesstimate that industry growth will be 4 percent or less. Just a few years ago the pharmaceutical industry enjoyed double-digit growth regardless of the general economy. Not surprisingly, 96 percent of industry experts believe that pharmaceutical sales force size will continue to decline, possibly reaching early-1990 levels of 50,000. This will be further complicated over the next five years by a continually modest number of new product approvals by the FDA. These trends are troublesome for medical advertising agencies, as fewer of our communication services will be needed, and client promotional budgets will shrink accordingly. Conclusion: Traditional medical advertising agencies face a crisis in terms of demand for their services. What's on the client's mind? Every pundit agrees that a client's largest concern is the pipeline of new products. Clearly, without a robust, clinically significant stream of new products, the need for traditional medical advertising will diminish. 281
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